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The Luxury Client, 2030

How desirability, identity and AI-mediated discovery are reshaping the next luxury growth cycle.

Fashion AI™ Research

The Luxury Client, 2030

The next luxury cycle is being shaped not only by market growth but by changing definitions of desirability, exclusivity and discovery in the United States and China.

Investor · Forecast

€365–373bn

Personal luxury goods — 2026

Bain base outlook: 2–4% growth. Use as a category demand frame, not as a company revenue forecast.

Bain & Company / Altagamma, 2026

Brand · Reported

+10–15%

US-native luxury brand momentum — Q1 2026

Bain-reported year-on-year growth signal for US-native luxury brands; useful for market-entry and comparative momentum work.

Bain & Company / Altagamma, 2026

Retailer · Reported

+25–35%

China online luxury — Q1 2026

Bain-reported online luxury growth signal; ready-to-wear reportedly grew at about twice the rate of leather goods.

Bain & Company / Altagamma, 2026

Designer · Reported

~50%

Luxury discovery now includes resale

About half of luxury shoppers consult secondhand before buying new, reinforcing price architecture, scarcity and residual-value considerations.

Bain & Company / Altagamma, 2026

Brand · Reported

~50%

Luxury purchase journeys using AI

About half of luxury shoppers use AI somewhere in the purchase journey, raising the importance of structured product information and machine-readable brand authority.

Bain & Company / Altagamma, 2026

Retailer · Reported

34%

Gen Z: social affects purchase decisions

McKinsey reports 34% of Gen Z respondents say social media is important in purchase decisions.

McKinsey & Company, 2026

Brand · Reported

60%

Gen Z: regular AI Overview use

McKinsey reports regular use of AI-generated search overviews among Gen Z at 60%, versus 29% among boomers.

McKinsey & Company, 2026

Investor · Forecast

USD 700bn

Global luxury — 2030

McKinsey/BoF projects the global luxury market to reach about USD 700 billion by 2030, with 4–6% annual growth. Treat as a category forecast, not a company forecast.

McKinsey & Company / The Business of Fashion, 2026

Brand · Reported

68%

US luxury clients identifying with challenger brands

In McKinsey/BoF’s 2026 luxury study, 68% of US luxury clients said newer or disruptive brands better reflect their identity, compared with 63% for established luxury houses.

McKinsey & Company / The Business of Fashion, 2026

Retailer · Reported

+5.0% YoY

US clothing & accessories stores — Jul 2026

The category was also 1.9% higher month over month. Use as a national channel read before applying local store economics and client sell-through.

U.S. Census Bureau, 2026

Retailer · Reported

+6.2%

China online clothing — H1 2026

Online clothing grew faster than total H1 retail. At the same time, brand-exclusive-store sales at large retailers fell 8.7%, showing why channel mix matters.

National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2026

Retailer · Reported

+10.7%

Korea online shopping — Jun 2026

Overall digital commerce remained strong even as online clothing transactions were down 1.5% year over year; avoid treating broad e-commerce growth as automatic apparel growth.

Republic of Korea Ministry of Data and Statistics, 2026

Retailer · Reported

16.4%

Singapore online retail share — Jun 2026

Retail sales rose 4.0% year over year. The online share provides a current channel-allocation anchor for Singapore market research.

Singapore Department of Statistics, 2026

Retailer · Reported

+3.6% YoY

Saudi wholesale & retail operating revenue — May 2026

A broad sector operating-revenue indicator rather than a fashion-sales measure; useful as current commercial context for Riyadh and Jeddah alongside local luxury and tourism evidence.

General Authority for Statistics (Saudi Arabia), 2026

Designer · Reported

−0.1% MoM

Brazil fabric, apparel & footwear — Apr 2026

Near-flat monthly category volume while total retail declined 1.5%; a useful directional read for Brazil that still requires brand or retailer sell-through data for assortment decisions.

Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), 2026

Brand · Reported

64 / 54 / 27%

Luxury AI adoption — China / US / France

Bain’s luxury survey shows materially different AI adoption by market; product data, discovery strategy and AI visibility should be localized rather than globally uniform.

Bain & Company / Comité Colbert, 2026

Designer · Reported

−0.7% MoM

Australia clothing & footwear spend — Jun 2026

National household spending on clothing and footwear softened month over month, while Q2 volume was 0.5% higher quarter over quarter—useful evidence for distinguishing monthly noise from quarterly direction.

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2026

Investor · Reported

+2%

International arrivals — Q1 2026

Observed global international-tourist arrivals were higher year over year despite disruption, adding a current destination-demand read beside the full-year 3–4% forecast.

UN Tourism, 2026

Investor · Forecast

€1.44–1.47tn

Worldwide luxury spending — 2026 base

Bain’s base case implies 0–2% constant-rate growth, while personal luxury goods are expected at €365–373bn and 2–4% growth.

Bain & Company / Altagamma, 2026